The U.K. economy is heading for its fastest expansion since the onset of the financial crisis, economists said as they upgraded their forecasts for growth through 2015.
Gross domestic product will rise 1.3 percent this year and 2 percent in 2014, compared with predictions of 1 percent and 1.7 percent previously, according to the median of 48 economists in a monthly survey by Bloomberg News. That pace of growth for next year would be the fastest since 2007, before the start of a slump that has left output more than 3 percent below its peak.
For Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, the question is how quickly this recovery can lower the country’sunemployment rate after he introduced forward guidance last month and linked the jobless rate directly to the policy stance. That measure hasn’t yet been effective, according to more than two thirds of economists in a separate survey.
“The consensus forecast has moved a long way very, very quickly,” said Jens Larsen, an economist at RBC Capital Markets in London and a former BOE official. “If you get a very powerful recovery, the arguments for guidance, for the extended period of low rates, just look so much weaker. It’s a bit of a communication challenge.”
The economists in the Bloomberg survey see GDP growth accelerating to 2.4 percent in 2015. Consumer spending will rise 1.6 percent this year and in 2014, while exports will increase 1.8 percent and 4.7 percent.
Bloomberg has the full article
