The bitter battle in Gaza highlights the fact that Islamist extremists have gained ground in the Palestinian territories with support from Egypt and Iran. The next battleground is likely to be the United Nations, where the Palestinians are seeking observer status. Has Israel miscalculated with its new offensive?
The current situation in the Middle East is reminiscent of events that unfolded shortly before Christmas in 2008, when then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert launched a campaign against the radical Islamist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip to stop it from launching rockets at his country — and, most likely, with the aim of securing a second term in office. Elections were around the corner, and Olmert’s opponent, Benjamin Netanyahu, was ahead in the polls.
Olmert had more than 1,000 bombs dropped on Gaza, and 10,000 Israeli troops marched into the territory. Building by building, they fought their way through refugee camps, villages and Gaza City. Well over 1,000 Palestinians lay dead in the wreckage before the extremists finally abandoned their resistance. “We have reached all of our objectives in Gaza,” Olmert declared after three weeks of war, “and Hamas has been dealt a heavy blow.” Opposition leader Netanyahu wasn’t convinced. “The next government will have no choice but to finish the job,” he said. Netanyahu ultimately won the election, using slogans like “Strong on Security” in his campaign.
Now Netanyahu is fighting for votes once again, and this time, as the current prime minister, he too is fighting terror. His army has been attacking Gaza since the middle of last week, in an operation dubbed Pillar of Defense. Netanyahu’s aim is to use force to achieve the peace on the Gaza front that Olmert was unable to secure four years ago. And perhaps, two months before the election, Netanyahu is also hoping for a war bonus, even though he is already ahead in the polls. At the very least, a military campaign against Gaza is a distraction from the serious social problems Israel currently faces.
But it’s also a dangerous game for the entire Middle East. Egypt’s new president, Mohammed Mursi, promised Hamas that his country was “standing with all its resources to stop this assault, to prevent the killing and bloodshed of the Palestinians.” Most of the players in this conflict are literally being driven to war by pressures at home. Netanyahu can’t show weakness before the elections, Hamas has to protect its reputation as it competes with even more radical Islamists, and Mursi must defend himself against critics in the Muslim Brotherhood, who accuse him of being too soft on Israel.
The ‘Iranian Front’
On the other hand, a devastating strike against the extremists in Gaza would also be a serious blow to the regime of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to Israeli intelligence information, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are the most important suppliers of weapons to the extremists, and they could very well have provided Hamas with its rockets. Tehran manufactures the Fajr, or “Dawn” missile.
Like other arms, the six-meter (20-foot) rocket reaches the Gaza Strip through one of the many tunnels under the border with Egypt. Some of the tunnels are now so big that even small trucks can drive through them.
Both sides now run the risk of becoming embroiled in a war. Netanyahu has an interest in bringing calm to the Gaza front, partly to cover his back in case he plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The regime in Tehran, however, emphasizes deterrence. It wants to demonstrate how much firepower its allies in Gaza have, in case they are determined to exact revenge. Israel’s military leadership is already referring to Gaza as the “Iranian front.”
Some in Israel even believe that the strike against the Gaza extremists is merely a trial run for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. For four years, the prime minister did relatively little against daily rocket attacks from “Hamastan,” says an Israeli security expert. But now he has crossed his “personal red line” and is taking action, first with a military strike against Gaza and then possibly against Iran.
Terror Camps in Egypt
This time, they are apparently better equipped to offer resistance than in the last Gaza war. Since the change in power Cairo, jihadists from the entire Islamic world, especially from North Africa, have set up terrorist camps on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. They include hundreds of fighters who have no fear of death, and certainly not of Israelis.
After Friday prayers, Salafists handed out flyers printed in Aryan that called upon their followers to fight for an Islamic state on the Sinai Peninsula. Jihadists there are not just attacking Egyptian police officers and soldiers, but are also infiltrating the Gaza Strip to engage in the conflict there.
Moderate forces, like Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who now has only the support of residents of the West Bank, are being marginalized. The leader of the Palestinian Autonomous Authority in Ramallah opposes violence against Israel, but he is increasingly coming under pressure to act in the face of Netanyahu’s rigorous settlement policy.
While his Hamas rivals are boosting their profile by firing rockets at Israel, Abbas must look on as, bit by bit, settlers take away land from his people. Negotiations with Netanyahu not premised on the condition of a halt to settlements would border on political suicide for Abbas.
Spiegel has the full article
