Aucklanders may get only a day or two warning of a volcanic eruption and will know just hours before where it will explode, a scientific paper says.
The 1.4 million people living on the Auckland volcanic field make too much noise for existing instruments to hear what is happening below the surface.
“This means that localisation of a future eruption site is only likely to occur within a few hours or days of an eruption,” the paper in the Journal of Remote Sensing of Environment says.
Each new vent in Auckland will occur at a new location, rather than an existing volcano, creating uncertainty over where it will hit.
The scientists say they have used a variety of devices and models to explore in a new way the lava flows of the 360 square kilometre volcanic field which holds 50 monogenetic volcanoes – that is single vents that erupt in one go. Polygenetic volcanoes – such as Ruapehu – erupt from the same craters regularly.
They say the city, especially south Auckland, will probably suffer more damage from lava flows during the early stages of the eruption.
“The city of Auckland is highly susceptible to lava flows, which are likely to travel further, and be potentially more destructive to infrastructure over longer periods, than the products of explosive opening phases of monogenetic eruptions at Auckland.”
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