Spring 2012 climate outlook favors warm, dry conditions in South

According to NOAA’s 2012 Spring Outlook, odds are that dry conditions and above-average temperatures will persist in much of the South, prolonging the historical drought event in 2011 that resulted in significant economic impacts. Meanwhile, last year’s most devastating flood events are unlikely to repeat due to limited winter snowfall and mountain snowpack.

The maps above show probabilities of well above or well below normal temperature and precipitation in the continental United States for April – June 2012, according to the official forecast issued by the Climate Prediction Center on March 15.

Locations where the odds favor well above or well below normal temperatures are shaded in red or blue; precipitation outlooks are shown in shades of green (well above normal) and brown (well below normal). Places without shading indicate areas where there is an equal chance of well above, well below, or near-normal conditions.

In the case of these forecasts, “well above” or “well below” refers to temperature or precipitation in the upper or lower third of the range of climate conditions observed in an area from 1981-2010. The outlooks are more confident in some places than they are in others; black lines trace the boundaries of different levels of probability.

The temperature and precipitation outlooks for this spring reflect the lingering influences of a weakening La Niña. During La Niña events, the polar jet stream tends to shift northward over the central Pacific Ocean, bringing cold air and storms into a region stretching from Alaska to the Northwestern part of the United States. This contributes to the greater than 33 percent probability for well below normal temperatures (shown in blue) in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.

 

NOAA has the full article

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